PARA sa political analyst na si Edmund Tayao, “black swan” na lamang ang maaaring makapigil sa napipintong pagkapanalo ni presidential frontrunner Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos Jr., sa darating na halalan sa Mayo 9.
Ang ‘black swan’ ay isang metaphor o matandang kasabihan na itinuturing na hindi nag-e-exist o “hindi mangyayari.”
Sa panayam sa ANC, sinabi ni Tayao na kung pagbabasehan ang mga resulta ng survey, si Marcos, na numero 7 sa official ballot ng Comelec, at kanyang running mate na si Inday Sara Duterte ay nakasisiguro na ang panalo sa darating na halalan sa Lunes.
“I was asked several times on what could be the reason (kung magbabago pa ba ang outcome ng eleksyon), the answer there is a “black swan.” I mean something that is unexpected. I can just hope and pray that if there will be a black swan, it will not be as disturbing,” ani Tayao.
Katulad ng ibang mga eksperto sa pulitika, naniniwala rin si Tayao na malaki ang ilalamang ni Marcos sa kanyang pinakamalapit na katunggali na si Leni Robredo.
“If our reference, and the only reference we have is the survey, it seems that the vice president will really have to settle in the second place,” anang political analyst.
Nito lamang Lunes, umiskor si Marcos ng 56 percent voter preference sa pinakahuling Pulse Asia survey na isinagawa sa 2, 400 respondents nitong Abril 16- 21.
Nakakuha rin si Marcos ng 56 porsiyento sa survey ng Pulse Asia nitong Marso at napanatili nito ang 33 porsiyentong kalamangan kay Robredo na umiskor lamang ng 23 porsiyento nitong Abril, o mas mababa ng isang puntos kumnpara sa kanyang 24 voter preference nitong Marso.
Nasa malayong pangatlo si Manny Pacquiao na nakakuha ng pitong porsiyento, habang si Isko Moreno na sumadsad sa pang-apat na pwesto ay nakakuha ng apat na porsiyento at si Ping Lacson naman ay nanatili sa ika-limang pwesto na mayroong dalawang porsiyento.
“This has been the trend all along since the filing of candidacy. I don’t remember any instance, not any other candidate, not VP Leni, not Mayor Isko, not Manny Pacquaio (ever) led in the surveys,” paliwanag ni Tayao.
“It’s quite unprecedented because it’s difficult to just compare the current survey to all previous elections considering that it’s a first time that a frontrunner would net more than 50 percent of all the respondents,” dagdag pa niya.
Binara rin ni Tayao ang mga pahayag ng ilang kampo na kumukwestiyon sa kredibilidad ng mga survey company sa bansa.
“In all the elections that we had, I don’t remember any other reference that we use to determine who may have an edge or who has an advantage in a particular area or region, other than the surveys,” saad ni Tayao.
“It’s quite interesting that we did that in every election and those who didn’t make it in the survey numbers always questioned the methodology and the validity of the surveys,” puna pa ng political analyst.
“If we go back in all the previous elections, the results of the elections always have been consistent with the numbers in the survey” giit niya.
Iginiit pa ni Tayao na survey lamang ang dapat pagbasehan ng suporta at hindi ang mga political rally ng mga kandidato.
“Many of those attending the rallies are also the ones attending previous rallies. So, it’s difficult to determine whether the massive attendance represent the support of a particular candidate in the particular area where the rally is being held,” Tayao also said.
Wala ng isang linggo ang halalan, kumbinsido si Tayao na mananalo si Marcos kahit pa may umatras na mga kandidato sa karera.
“All the tailenders, even if you put the numbers together will not be enough to unseat or to overcome the lead of the frontrunner,” aniya.
