MAAARING bumaba ang coconut oil (CNO) exports ng bansa sa market year (MY) 2019-2020 ng 5 percent sa 950,000 metric tons (MT) dahil sa patuloy na pagbuhos ng global vegetable oil glut at ng inaasahang pagbaba ng copra output, ayon sa ulat ng Global Agricultural Information Network (Gain).
Ayon sa report ng Gain na inihanda ng United States Department of Agriculture-Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA-FAS) sa Manila, ang CNO exports ay maaaring bumaba ng 50,000 MT mula sa tinatayang 1 MMT sa MY 2018-2019.
Ang pagbaba ay isinisisi sa inaasahang ‘downward cyclical period’ ng output ng coconut trees na magbababa sa CNO production sa MY 2019-2020 sa 1.66 MMT mula sa 1.71 MMT.
“For MY 19/20, CNO output is expected to contract further to 1.66 million tons, consistent with the projected decrease in copra production during the year,” nakasaad sa report na nalathala kamakailan.
Sa pagtaya ng Gain report, ang CNO consumption ng bansa ay mananatili sa 710,000 MT mula MY 2018-2019 hanggang sa susunod na MY dahil sa ‘subdued CNO prices’ na resulta ng global vegetable oil glut.
“Copra output in MY 2019-2020 could also decline by nearly 5 percent to 2.5 MMT from 2.63 MMT in the current MY as coconut trees “are likely on the verge of stress after two years of heavy nut bearing and will produce less copra as a result,” ayon pa sa report.
“Tree stress will become more pronounced in MY 19/20, with copra output forecast to decline by 130,000 tons to 2.5 million tons,” dagdag pa nito. JASPER ARCALAS
