EPEKTO NG LOCKDOWN SA EKONOMIYA NG PILIPINAS

PILIPINO Mirror
JOE_S_TAKE

ILANG linggo lamang matapos ang kumpirmasyon ng Department of Health (DOH) ukol sa pagkakaroon ng lokal na transmission ng Delta variant sa bansa, nakitaan na ng matinding pagtaas ang naitatalang mga bagong kaso kada araw.

Noong ika-7 ng Agosto ay umabot sa 11,021 ang bilang ng naitalang bagong kaso. Ito ang pinakamataas na bilang na naitala simula noong ika-17 ng Abril ng taong ito, kung saan nakapagtala ang DOH ng 11,101 na kaso. Kasalukuyan nang nasa higit 1.6 milyon ang kabuuang bilang ng kaso ng COVID-19 sa bansa. Mula sa datos noong ika-8 ng Agosto, nasa halos 78,000 o 4.7% ang naitalang aktibong kaso.

Ayon sa DOH, nakitaan din ng pagtaas ang positivity rate sa antas na 20.3% noong ika-8 ng Agosto. Ito ang pinakamataas na naitalang antas mula noong ika-10 ng Abril. Mas mataas din ito sa naitalang antas na 19.1% noong ika-7 ng Ago-sto, 18.4% noong ika-6 ng Agosto, at 17.3% noong ika-5 ng Agosto. Tumataas na talaga ang positivity rate o ang antas ng nagpopositibo sa kabuuang bilang ng ginawang testing. Dagdag din ng ahensiya na hindi bababa sa 450 na kaso ng Delta variant ang naitala na nito sa kasalukuyan.

Ayon kay Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire, hindi maiiwasan ang patuloy na pagtaas ng kaso ng COVID-19 sa bansa sa kabila ng pagpapatupad ng enhanced community quarantine o ECQ. Binibigyan lamang nito ng karagdagang panahon ang pamahalaan na mas mapaigting pa ang paghahandang ginagawa laban sa mas agresibong Delta variant.

Ang maagang pagpapatupad ng pinakamahigpit na uri ng community quarantine sa ilang lugar sa bansa kasama na ang Metro Manila ay makatutulong sa pagkontrol sa pagkalat ng Delta variant. Subalit, ito ay tiyak na magkakaroon ng negatibong epekto sa ating ekonomiya gaya ng mga nakaraang lockdown. Noong unang beses ng pagpapatupad ng ECQ noong nakaraang taon, nagrehistro ng malaking pagbaba ang ating GDP sa antas na 9.6% kumpara noong 2019, batay sa datos ng Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA).

Ito na ang ikatlong pagkakataong ipatutupad ang ECQ sa ilang lugar sa bansa kasama ang Metro Manila. Sa naunang pahayag ni Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Chua, hindi bababa sa P210 bilyon ang maaaring mawala sa ekonomiya dahil sa dalawang linggong lockdown. Subalit ang pagtatayang ito ay tumaas pa sa P150 bilyon kada linggo matapos madagdagan ang listahan ng mga probinsyang isasailalim sa ECQ. Samakatuwid, hindi bababa sa P300 bilyon ang maaaring mawala sa ating ekonomiya bilang resulta ng pagpapatupad ng lockdown.

Bukod sa Metro Manila at Laguna, isinailalim din sa ECQ ang Iloilo at Cagayan de Oro. Sasailalim naman sa MECQ ang ilang bahagi ng Calabarzon gaya ng Cavite, Lucena City, at Rizal. Ang Batangas at Quezon ay isasailalim sa general community quarantine (GCQ) with heightened restrictions.

Ang Metro Manila ang sentro ng ating ekonomiya kaya  ang pagpapatupad ng ECQ dito ay tiyak na magkakaroon ng matinding negatibong epekto sa kalagayan ng ating bansa. Dagdag pa rito ang rehiyon ng Calabarzon, na isa rin sa maituturing na pangunahing economic player dahil sa mga pasilidad na may kinalaman sa manufacturing na matatagpuan sa naturang rehiyon.

Ayon kay Chua, 68% ng ekonomiya ng bansa ay isinailalim sa GCQ with heightened restriction at sa mas mahigpit pang uri ng lockdown mula noong ika-6 ng Agosto. Ito ay tinatayang makaaapekto sa higit 600,000 na manggagawa. Bilang resulta rin ay tataas ng humigit kumulang 250,000 ang bilang ng mahihirap.

Ayon kay Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) President Emeritus George T. Barcelon, maaapektuhan ang antas ng pag-angat ng ating ekonomiya ngayong ikatlong yugto ng taon. Dahil karamihan sa mga mamamayan ay hindi maaaring lumabas ng tahanan, maaapektuhan ang mga negosyo. Bababa rin ang koleksiyon ng pamahalaan, at inaasahang tataas ang gastos na ilalaan nito sa serbisyong medikal at pangkalusugan.

Ayon sa mga eksperto, kailangang samantalahin ang lockdown at gawing mas agresibo ang programang pagpapabakuna ng bansa lalo na sa mga lugar na natukoy bilang high risk. Ang pamamahagi ng bakuna sa mas maraming indibidwal sa loob ng dalawang linggong lockdown ay magiging malaking tulong sa mas ligtas na pagbubukas ng ekonomiya. Ayon kay Chua, bagama’t tiyak na pababagalin ng lockdown ang mga aktibidad ng ekonomiya, ito naman ay maituturing na pamumuhunan para sa mas malakas na pagbangon sa nalalabing panahon na natitira ngayong 2021.

Ayon kay vaccine czar Carlito Galvez, Jr., nasa 12.9 milyong indibidwal na ang nabigyan ng unang dosis ng bakuna, habang 11.2 milyong indibidwal naman ang kumpleto na sa bakuna. Ang bilang na ito ay kumakatawan sa 15.8% ng ating populasyon. Malayo pa ito sa target na 70% ng populasyon ng bansa upang makamit natin ang herd immunity.

Bagama’t marami ang hindi masaya sa muling pagpapatupad ng lockdown, ito ang kinakailangang gawin ng pamahalaan upang makontrol ang pagkalat ng mas nakahahawang Delta variant. Mas mainam na maaga pa lamang ay makontrol na ang pagdami nito kaysa hintayin na umabot sa puntong halos mapuno na naman ang ating mga ospital. Ang pamahalaan ang nagdesisyon ukol sa lockdown, ngunit ito ay hindi nangangahulugan na sa kanila lamang nakasalalay ang pagiging epektibo nito.

Kailangan nating makiisa bilang mamamayan. Sundin natin ang mga ipinatutupad na protokol at higit sa lahat, tayo ay magpabakuna. Huwag nating hayaang tuluyang dumami ang kaso ng Delta variant sa bansa dahil kung hindi natin makokontrol ang pagtaas ng kaso ng virus sa bansa, tiyak na mas mahihirapan tayong bumangon dahil maaaring palawigin pa ang pagpapatupad ng lockdown.

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