(Sa fourth quarter ng 2024) CONSUMER, BUSINESS CONFIDENCE TUMAAS

TUMAAS ang kumpiyansa ng mga negosyo at consumer sa fourth quarter ng taon, ayon sa survey ng Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

Batay sa Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) ng BSP, ang consumer confidence ay tumaas sa -11.1 percent, mula -15.6 percent sa third quarter.

Ang CES ay isang quarterly survey ng random sample ng may 5,000 kabahayan sa Pilipinas.
Saklaw nito ang tatlong bahagi ng consumer outlook na kinabibilangan ng overall economic condition, family financial situation, at family income.

“The improved sentiment in the fourth quarter was due to higher and additional sources of income, more working family members, and more available jobs and permanent employment,” paliwanag ng central bank.

Para sa first quarter ng 2025 at sa susunod na 12 buwan, sinabi ng BSP na ang consumer confidence ay tumaas din.

“The more upbeat outlook of consumers for both periods was attributed to expectations of higher income, additional sources of income, and more available jobs,” ayon sa BSP.

Samantala, lumitaw sa Business Expectations Survey (BES) ng BSP na ang overall CI ay umakyat sa 44.5 percent mula 32.9 percent sa third quarter.

Ang BES ay isang quarterly survey ng mga kompanyang random na pinili mula sa listahan ng top 7,000 corporations na inihanay base sa kabuuang assets noong 2017 mula sa Bureau van Dijk database.

“Results of the BES provide advance indication of the direction of the change in overall business activity in the economy and in the various measures of their operations as well as in selected economic indicators,” ayon sa BSP.

“The firms’ more bullish business confidence in Q4 (fourth quarter) 2024 was driven by their anticipation of an increase in demand for certain goods and services and the related seasonal uptick in business activities.”

“In particular, this could lead to increased demand in agricultural products, infrastructure projects, shipping and distribution services, transportation units, enrollment, chemicals, graphics services, among others,” dagdag pa nito.

Gayunman, ang business confidence para sa first quarter ng 2025 ay nabawasan kung saan ang overall CI ay bumaba sa 40.3 percent mula 56.8 percent sa third quarter 2024 survey results.

Ayon sa BSP, ang mga kompanya ay less optimistic para sa susunod na quarter dahil inaasahan nila ang post-holiday decline sa demand para sa mga produkto at serbisyo at business activities, mahigpit na foreign at domestic competition, tumaas na economic uncertainty patungo sa midterm elections, paghina ng piso, at mas mataas na halaga ng produksiyon.

Para sa susunod na 12 buwan, ang business outlook ay less optimistic din kung saan ang overall CI ay bumaba sa 56.4 percent mula 58.0 percent sa third quarter.