INAASAHAN ng Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) na magtatala ng mas malaking balance of payments (BOP) surplus ang bansa kapwa sa 2024 at 2025.
Ang BOP ay kabuuan ng economic transactions ng bansa sa iba pa sa mundo para sa isang ispesipikong panahon.
Ang overall position ay maaaring sa surplus, deficit o balance.
Sa isang statement, sinabi ng BSP na ang BOP ay inaasahang magtatala ng surplus na USD3.5 billion sa 2024, mas mataas sa naunang pagtaya na USD2.3 billion.
Para sa 2025, itinaas din ng BSP ang BOP surplus sa USD2.1 billion mula USD1.7 billion.
“The latest set of forecasts points to continued resilience of the country’s overall BOP position for 2024 and 2025, while showing a decelerating path relative to the 2023 outturn,” ayon sa central bank.
“This assessment is underpinned mainly by stable yet moderating global and domestic economic growth prospects; a slowing inflation trajectory across jurisdictions; lingering geopolitical and weather shocks; as well as possible shifts in US trade and investment policies under the incoming Trump administration,” dagdag pa ng BSP.
Inaasahan ng BSP na lalaki ang current account shortfall sa USD10.4 billion sa 2024 mula sa naunang pagtaya na USD6.8 billion.
“This is largely a result of the lower growth forecasts for both goods and services exports in 2024 alongside higher projected services imports,” anang BSP.
Ang paglago ng goods exports ay ibinaba sa 2 percent mula 4 percent habang ang pagtaya para sa services exports ay ibinaba rin sa 8 percent mula 13 percent.
Gayunman, ang growth projection para sa services imports ay itinaas sa 19 percent mula 13 percent.
“The latest growth forecast for services exports is anchored on the expected deceleration of revenue inflows coming from business process outsourcing (BPO) and travel activities, consistent with latest trend driven in part by domestic constraints in AI (artificial intelligence) adoption and slow return of Chinese tourists into the country, among others,” ayon sa BSP.
Inaasahan namang lalago ang travel receipts ng 15 percent sa 2024, habang ang BPO revenues growth ay tinatayang tataas ng 5 percent.
Samantala, ang cash remittances ay tinatayang tataas ng 3 percent.
Inaasahan din ng BSP ang mas mataas na net inflow ng hot money sa USD6.3 billion mula USD4.2 billion, habang ang foreign direct investment (FDI) net inflow projection ay ibinaba sa USD9.0 billion mula USD10 billion.
Para sa 2025, sinabi ng BSP na ang overall BOP ay inaasahang mananatili sa surplus sa kabila ng paglaki ng current account sa USD2.4 billion.
Sustained net inflows from the financial account will continue to buoy the overall BOP outlook this year. There is still scope for global trade to pick up in 2025 given an environment of moderating global inflation and improved business activity,” ayon sa BSP.
Nevertheless, US-related uncertainty, specifically linked to possible policy shifts in the US trade, investment, and migration policies, will remain a key downside risk to the 2025 external sector outlook,” dagdag pa nito. ULAT MULA SA PNA