TINATAYANG aabot sa P41.4 trillion ang kabuuang halaga ng mawawala sa bansa sa COVID-19 pandemic at sa pagpapatupad ng community quarantines sa susunod na apat na dekada, ayon sa National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA).
Batay sa presentation materials ni Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Kendrick Chua, ang halaga ay para sa net present value, na may P4.3 trillion sa 2020 pa lamang, at P37.0 trillion sa susunod na 10 hanggang 40 taon.
Ang presentation ay isinagawa noong nakaraang linggo sa Public-Private Task Force T3 (Test, Trace, and Treat), na naglalayong mapalakas ang relief efforts ng bansa laban sa pandemya.
Ang pagmumulan ng losses sa susunod na 40 taon ay kinabibilangan ng nawalang sahod mula sa premature deaths, lost productivity sanhi ng COVID-19 at non-COVID-19 illnesses, at medical expenses.
Isinaalang-alang ng NEDA ang mas mababang pagkonsumo at investment sa susunod na dekada dahil sa mahinang demand sa mga sektor na minamandato ang social distancing, tulad ng amusement, tourism, restaurants, at public transportation.
Hihilahin nito ang tax revenues pababa, kung saan ang ekonomiya ay inaasahang magtatagpo sa pre-pandemic growth path pagkalipas lamang ng 10 taon.
“Foregone consumption and investments in 2020 will result in lower capital accumulation in the future,” sabi ni Chua sa presentation.
“Foregone consumption, physical investment, and returns in 2020 is estimated at P3.924 trillion, and is expected to reach P21.913 trillion in the next decade, for a total of P25.838 trillion.”
Pagdating sa nawalang tax revenues, tinataya ng NEDA na P782 billion ang nawala noong 2020 — P271 billion sa value-added tax, P144 billion sa corporate income tax, P86 billion sa personal income tax, at P282 sa lahat ng iba pang buwis.
Inaasahang lalala ito sa susunod na 10 taon, kung saan ang total foregone tax revenues ay nasa P1.206 trillion — P409 billion sa value-added tax, P286 billion sa corporate income tax, P229 billion sa personal income tax, at P282 billion sa lahat bg iba pang buwis.
“Lower capital accumulation will result in lower financial returns and lower economic benefits for the people,” ani Chua.
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