INAASAHANG bahagyang bibilis ang headline inflation ngayong Pebrero dahil sa base effects at mas mataas na presyo ng langis, ayon sa isang ekonomista.
Sinabi ni Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation chief economist Michael Ricafort sa Philippine News Agency noong Biyernes na ang headline inflation ay posibleng maitala sa 3 percent sa Pebrero, bahagyang mas mataas sa 2.8 percent noong nakaraang buwan.
Gayunman ay pasok pa rin ito sa target ng gobyerno na 2-4 percent.
“The [pick up was] mathematically due to some easing of the high base effects. Nevertheless [it’s] still relatively slower and within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ target of 2 to 4 percent,” sabi ni Ricafort.
Ayon kay Ricafort, ang pagbilis ay maaari ring dahil sa mas mataas na global crude oil prices.
“For February 2024 and for the coming months of 2024, there might be some pick-up in year-on-year inflation due to the gradual easing of the base effects that would quantitatively lead to some increase in the year-on-year data, as well as El Niño risks up to May 2024 that could reduce the output of rice and other agricultural products, all of which would lead to some pick up in food prices and overall inflation,” aniya.
Sa pagtaya ni Ricafort, ang inflation ay maitatala sa 3 percent levels hanggang April 2024, maaabot ang 4 percent target mula May hanggang July at pasok sa target sa August hanggang December ngayong taon. Dagdag pa niya, ang full-year average ay tinatayang nasa 3.6 hanggang 4 percent kung mananatiling mas mababa ang global crude oil prices at kung ang rice inflation ay maayos na mapamamahalaan.
(PNA)
